The Victorian Smiths - how realistic?

So I have acquired the top 20 for the 1881 census, and what do I want to do with it? Compare it with the Victorian Smiths of course!

If you want to know about censuses in the UK then there's a wikipedia page, and things on the Office for National Statistics and GENUKI. The 1881 census is the only one that is available completely free and can be searched on Family Search. The top 20 list that I have is from an article by Dr Kenneth Tucker published in Onoma, the actual article has a lot more information and analysis.

What does this mean? Well, the 1881 census includes pretty much everyone alive in 1881 - so they could be born in 1852 or 1820 or 1881 itself (as long as it's pre April), so I've added up all of the totals. Unfortunately, this excludes everyone born pre-1840 or born outside of UK. But as the life expectancy was lower than it is today (around 40-50 seems to be what I am finding) then this should affect it less than if it was studying the 2001 census where the life expectancy is longer. Also, there was an increase in population (14 mil to 24 mil 1840-80) that means that a significant proportion of the population will be under 40.

Anyway without further ado:

1881 census:

1	Mary
2	Elizabeth
3	Ann
4	Sarah
5	Jane
6	Ellen
7	Eliza
8	Alice
9	Annie
10	Emma
11	Margaret
12	Emily
13	Hannah
14	Martha
15	Louisa
16	Maria
17	Catherine
18	Harriet
19	Edith
20	Charlotte

Victorian Smiths 1840-80:

1	Mary
2	Elizabeth
3	Sarah
4	Ann
5	Alice
6	Jane
7	Emma
8	Ellen
9	Emily
10	Margaret
11	Annie
12	Hannah
13	Harriet
14	Eliza
15	Martha
16	Florence
17	Ada
18	Edith
19	Louisa
20	Clara

Mary, unsurprisingly, tops both lists with Elizabeth in second place. There is some shuffling around in #3 to 5 with Sarah, Ann and Alice in that order in the Victorian Smiths, while Ann, Sarah and Jane are in that order in the census list. Alice is #8 on the census, as Alice peaks in 1870s while Jane peaked in 1840s this probably represents that Jane was more popular pre-1840. 

Eliza similarly is in quite a different position - #7 in census, and #14 in Victorian Smiths. As Eliza peaked in 1850 and has a large fall (see 1850 graph), this probably means that there were more Elizas pre 1840.

Harriet is much higher on Victorian Smiths list - #13 compared with #18, this is another 1850 name so should really be the other way around. However, the 1850 graph shows that Harriet's popularity stayed fairly level from 1850 to 75 and started off lower, so this probably counts for its higher popularity on Victorian Smiths.

A few names on census list that aren't on Victorian Smiths top 20: Catherine, Charlotte and Maria. Starting with Maria, which peaked in 1840 and then fell fairly steadily throughout the period - that isn't really a surprise, and one wonders if Maria had actually peaked pre1840 and one of the limitations of the Victorian Smiths is only being able to go back to 1840. Catherine and Charlotte both peaked in 1870. In Catherine's case, there is an obvious growth to the 1870 peak, whereas Charlotte seems to have the same number of births throughout the period. Charlotte definitely feels like a Regency name to me, so that could account for its popularity. I am not sure whether in compiling the census list whether separate spellings were taken into account, for I think that is what decreased Catherine's share. 

A few names on the Victorians Smiths list that aren't on the census top 20: Ada, Clara and Florence. Ada and Clara are both names that peaked in the 1870s, and had very few births at the beginning of 1840s - their appearance shows the Victorian Smiths emphasis upon post-1840 popular names. Florence is #21 on the census list, and as I have written about a lot here, doesn't peak until 1895 when it dramatically ties with Mary. The Victorian Smiths is obviously foreshadowing such an event more than the census list.

If anyone has anything on the Victorian Smiths that they would like me to look into, then please post! If not, this may be the last post on the Victorian Smiths though I am thinking of using the data for a longer spanning project.